Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics

The mean figure of everyday homicides monthly in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that homicide data could fail to signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September. This data was delivered by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen over these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the smallest number of murders were registered for any November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that using murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true given the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure periods when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day average renders surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas remarked.