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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still